November’s surprise job losses reveal the real culprits behind America’s economic slowdown—and it’s not what the mainstream media wants you to believe.
Quick Take
- Private payrolls dropped 32,000 in November, with small businesses bearing the brunt at 120,000 job losses
- Commerce Secretary Lutnick attributes the decline to the Democrat government shutdown and deportation enforcement, not tariffs
- Larger businesses gained 90,000 workers, signaling uneven economic recovery across company sizes
- Administration projects GDP growth above 4% in 2026 as temporary disruptions stabilize
- Critics warn tariffs could trigger additional job cuts, but the administration maintains optimism on the economic rebound
The Real Story Behind November’s Job Drop
On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the American Payroll Association released data showing private payrolls contracted by 32,000 workers in November—a sharp reversal from October’s gains. This unexpected decline immediately sparked debate over its causes, with critics quick to blame President Trump’s tariff policies.
However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick offered a different explanation during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street,” pointing instead to the Democrat government shutdown and ongoing immigration enforcement efforts as the primary culprits dampening job creation.
Bad jobs report caused by shutdown, deportations — not tariffs, Lutnick says https://t.co/siOycVMXiD
— CNBC (@CNBC) December 3, 2025
Small Businesses Suffer Most Under Shutdown Impact
The data reveals a stark disparity between small and large employers. Businesses with fewer than 50 workers shed 120,000 jobs, while larger corporations added 90,000 positions. Lutnick explained that the government shutdown created uncertainty for small businesses dependent on federal contracts and payments.
When federal agencies halt operations, contractors and suppliers face payment delays, forcing them to slow project work and reduce staffing. This cascading effect hit construction and government-dependent sectors particularly hard, demonstrating how Washington dysfunction directly harms Main Street America’s job market.
Deportation Enforcement as Economic Headwind
Beyond the shutdown, Lutnick highlighted mass deportation enforcement as a temporary drag on small-business employment. As the Trump administration removes undocumented immigrants from the workforce, certain industries—particularly construction, hospitality, and agriculture—experience labor supply disruptions.
While conservatives support immigration enforcement to protect American workers and uphold the rule of law, Lutnick acknowledged this transition creates near-term employment volatility. The administration views this as a necessary short-term cost for long-term labor market integrity and higher wages for legal American workers.
Tariffs Not the Primary Culprit
When directly asked whether Trump’s import duties explained the job losses, Lutnick flatly rejected the premise. “No, no, it’s not tariffs,” he stated, emphasizing that structural issues—the shutdown and deportations—better account for November’s decline.
This distinction matters significantly for conservatives evaluating the administration’s economic strategy.
While critics from corporate America and mainstream economists warn that tariffs could suppress future hiring, Lutnick’s analysis suggests current employment weakness stems from temporary policy transitions rather than protectionist trade measures themselves.
Optimism on Economic Recovery Ahead
Despite November’s setback, Lutnick expressed confidence that employment figures will “rebalance and regrow” as temporary disruptions fade. He characterized the slowdown as “a near-term event” and predicted that next year’s numbers “are going to be fantastic.”
The Commerce Secretary reiterated his forecast for GDP growth exceeding 4% in 2026, signaling administration confidence that the current administration’s policies—once implementation challenges are resolved—will deliver robust economic expansion benefiting working Americans.
Broader Economic Concerns Remain
ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, acknowledged that “hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.” This assessment suggests that while shutdown and deportation effects are real, broader economic uncertainty also influences business hiring decisions.
Corporate executives and forecasters continue warning that Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies could trigger additional job cuts in the coming months, creating tension between the administration’s optimistic projections and private-sector caution about future conditions.
